In Japan, the concentration of young people in the Tokyo area has continued for many years. Creating an outward flow of young people from Tokyo is an important national issue. While there have been many studies on return migration, few have focused on the migration for a first job after graduation. This study aimed to investigate what contribute to return migration of university graduates at the time of their first job （U-turn at their first job）. The study analyzed individual data from the National Survey on Migration conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2016 using a probit model to examine （１） whether economic factors of the home prefecture and the place of residence at university graduation affected the probability of U-turn at their first job; and （２） whether the effect differed between men and women. Economic factors considered in this paper were "per capita, prefectural income," which indicates the level of income, and "active job openings-to-applicants ratio," which indicates the abundance of job openings. From the viewpoint of regional revitalization, the subjects of the analysis were non-Tokyo-area residents. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, better economic advantages of the home prefecture in terms of income and job opportunities increased the likelihood of U-turn at their first job for men who graduated from a university outside of their home prefecture. In contrast, the better economic advantages of the place of residence at university graduation reduced the likelihood of U-turn at their first job. For women, however, there was no significant relationship between the economic factors and U-turn at their first job. Second, men who made a U-turn at their first job tended to go to a university outside of their home prefecture regardless of the distance from their home prefecture and returned to their home prefecture after graduation. Conversely, women who made a U-turn at their first job tended to choose a university relatively close to their home prefecture and returned to their home prefecture regardless of the economic status of their home prefecture. The results indicates that other factors such as local amenities, family relations, and personal values, may be important in encouraging women to make a U-turn at their first job.
In Japan mountainous areas’ population aging is more pronounced than in urban areas. Therefore, supporting community sustainability through health maintenance is critical.
This study examines whether participating in community events leads to subjective health. We focused on the Yamanouchi area of Yumesaki-cho, Himeji City, Hyogo Prefecture, which is mountainous area and where population aging and depopulation is serious. With the theme of “town development for longevity and health,” multiple universities are participating in practical research projects in this area, such as a new health checkup, “Health Checkup Project through adding points to Goodness in Daily Life.” We hypothesized that joining community events actively and concerning to have connections with people outside their area, such as university students, lead good health. In 2019 and 2021, we conducted questionnaire surveys targeting all households in the Yamanouchi area and clarified the effects of joining community events and knowing local events related to university students on subjective health. We consider the endogeneity of variables related to events and conducted empirical analysis based on extended ordered probit model.
Our empirical results supported our hypothesis. We found that inhabitants who join more community events or those who know of more events with university students tend to evaluate their health more favorably, and the effects were statistically significant. Thus, we deduce that actively planning community events will be beneficial for inhabitants’ health in the area. In addition, it is possible that university students’ participation in community development is effective for inhabitants’ health. In the mountainous areas where the population is decreasing, continuing community events could prove difficult, but it would be important to consider their impact on health and encourage various events as far as possible.
This study was conducted using the Shumon Aratamecho（Religious Registration Books） made from 1776 to 1841 of a village, Imaura situated on the coast of the Japan Sea in the San’in Region, west-north of Japan. Its population was 354 in 1776 and 617 in 1836.
Regarding the four famines（Tenmei, Tenpô, and two others estimated to have occurred in the 1750’s and 1770’s）, we discovered（１） low nuptiality and fertility during the famines, （２） high nuptiality and fertility immediately after the famines, and（３） approximately 30 years after the two phenomena, the decrease or the increase of the proportion of female population aged 26-30 years old（“marriageable age”） that is the cohort born at the time of the two phenomena, respectively（except Tenpô famine）
We discovered that the increase or the decrease of the proportion of the female population aged 26-30 years old caused an increase or decrease of marriages and births for the second time. However, the realization of the changes in the crude birth and marriage rates was often found to be modified by the occurrence or the influence of the new famine, resulting in the acceleration or the counterbalance of the changes.
We claim that the increase or decrease of the marriageable population did not only increase or decrease the number of marriages but also that it increased or decreased the age-specific marriage rates. This phenomenon of inducing the change of the age-specific rates of marriage has not yet been reported nor explained theoretically in historical demography in Japan. However, in our study, it can be thought to be observable in the late Edo period, when there was not a strong long-range trend of late or early marriages that is peculiar in societies such as recent Japan.
The decrease in marriages and fertility in the second half of the 1810’s was found to be caused by the decline of the birth rate in Tenmei famine which occurred 30 years earlier. There are no reports of such severe events as to be the causes in that period according to the regional history books.
The oscillations in the numbers of marriages and births deriving from the frequent famines might be observable in many villages where the growth rate of the population was positive in the non-famine period in the Edo period in Japan.
New analytical indicators are created based on new research propositions, having a new focus or problem awareness, to solve specific problems, verify hypotheses, or conduct exploratory studies. Regarding developments related to regional population studies in Japan since the 2000s, population decline and population aging with declining birthrates have been progressing with regional differences. Therefore, there is a demand to understand the characteristics of the state of each region’ s population. Moreover, the e-Stat system has made it easier to obtain macro-statistical data. New demographic and family problems are emerging, such as the population concentration in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the outflow of young people from the regional areas, changes in suburban regions of metropolitan areas, and changes in family formation behavior contributing to the declining birthrate. New analytical indicators are being created to consider these issues. This paper focuses on analytical indicators and analytical perspectives in regional population studies in Japan and reviews these studies from the 2000s in addition to their predecessors. The reviews are divided into three categories: １） the analytical indicators that capture the substance of migration, ２） the perspective of interregional comparison that considers the impact of migration, and ３） the analytical indicators that consider detailed intergenerational relationships.
Research reflects the expertise and analytical perspective of the researcher. Each researcher has a research proposition based on their perception of the issues and perspectives. Creating new analytical indicators to approach such propositions involves numerous trials and research activities. Therefore, the findings obtained from the new analytical indicators and the process of creating them have academic significance.
This paper aims to summarize research trends in regional population analysis using spatial statistics, which has been accumulating empirical studies in the field of demography in recent years. The paper provides an overview of spatial statistics and an explanation of spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity as spatial characteristics. It describes research trends in the field of demography, including （1） a new approach using a spatial econometric model as a methodological innovation in testing the diffusion hypothesis in fertility transition, and （2） a local model that allows the relationship between the dependent and independent variables to differ by region in the regression model.
The diffusion hypothesis in fertility transition was revealed by a series of studies conducted by the "European Fertility Project （1963-1986）". Spatial statistics analysis of diffusion hypothesis reveals that both diffusion and socio-economic effects were detected. However, the diffusion effect was more significant than the socio-economic effect, and the results are consistent with previous studies.
The geographically weighted regression model is one of the nonparametric spatial regression models, which expresses the spatial variation of local regression coefficients by applying spatial weighting. There are examples of analysis in regional fertility analysis, small-area population projections, and regional mortality analysis in Covid-19.
In Japan, spatial data has been remarkably increased in recent years, and with the free software such as QGIS, R, and GeoDa for spatial statistics, the scope of application of spatial statistical methods to regional population analysis is on the way to being expanded.
This paper discusses the significance and prospects of applying multilevel analysis to migration research. It begins with an overview of the methodological divide between the micro and macro approaches. The former is characterized by individual-level analysis of migration processes and destination choices, and the latter by analysis of aggregate data on migration levels and flows. Specifically, the perspectives, methods, and data used in each approach are summarized, with implications for the conceptual and methodological background of the need for the multilevel modeling approach. The discussion is followed by a description of the structure and novelty of the multilevel model, which has led to a growing volume of innovative findings in migration research. For the methodological aspects of advances in migration research, the introduction of multilevel analysis has provided solutions to the technical problems of the conventional approaches, such as the violation of the assumption of independence of the observations and the generation of the ecological fallacy. It has also contributed to the development of analytical frameworks that simultaneously consider factors measured at different levels and their interactions. The discussion concludes by highlighting new insights that multilevel analysis brings, including new evidence for classic propositions and hypotheses.
This paper reviews recent trends in the regional population analysis of rural villages in developing countries. In contrast to demographic studies on developed countries, demographic studies on developing countries are still bottlenecked by inadequate statistical data on regional populations. In order to address this problem, researchers have been conducting retrospective surveys targeting small areas for a long time. Although there have been no major changes in survey methods, there have been advances in efforts to develop more sophisticated methods and database tools to support surveys and analysis. In addition, the Health and Demographic Surveillance System projects have been expanding to enhance understandings of population dynamics on a large scale in specific regions. Furthermore, population mobility in rural regions of developing countries has been very frequent, triggering discussions on transnational and translocal concepts of spatial connectivity. This concept has been presented from both the urban and rural perspectives, and it will be necessary to broaden the regional framework to include understandings of regional populations in rural villages.